Category Archives: ralph nadar

>REACT: Creamer dreamer

>If I ever want someone to write a convincing article about the existence of the Tooth Fairy, I would assign the job to liberal emoter Robert Creamer, a fellow Illinoisan. I came to this conclusion after reading his latest espousings on the inevitability of the election of Barack Obama to the presidency. I find the argument advancing the existence of the Tooth Fairy to be more compelling than Creamer’s brief on behalf of Obama’s election.

If you are not familiar with Creamer (pictured), he is a regular contributor to the Huff ‘n Puff Post … I mean the Huffington Post. He is the husband of Illinois Congresswoman Jan Schakowski (one of the more charming liberals), and according to his own tag line, Creamer is “a long time political organizer and strategist and author of the recent book, Stand Up Straight. How Progressives Can Win.” (Is “Stand Up Straight” demeaning to the gay community? Is this code language? You just cannot be too careful these days.)

Anyway … Creamer forgot to mention that he was the founder and head of Illinois Political Action, a radical left-wing advocacy group. I say “was” because he left that group when the local U.S. Attorney found a cell for him in one of those federal penal institutions. He spent half a year as a guest of the taxpayers for something to do with bank fraud, check kiting and not turning over payroll withholding money to the government — all the while he took home a six-figure salary and enjoyed a generous expense account. He copped a plea to avoid more serious charges – as if those are not serious enough. Of course, as with most scandalized and felonious left-wingers, he remains in the highest esteem of the liberal establishment – ergo his platform on the Huffington Pest…. ooops … I mean Post.

Hailing from Illinois, Creamer is another of Obama’s good friends of dubious repute – guys who span the spectrum from controversial to criminal. Tony Rezko? Bill Ayers? Jeremiah Wright? This is getting more interesting all the time. I wonder if Creamer’s enthusiasm for Obama is spelled p-a-r-d-o-n.

Weeeeell … as I said … one of Bob’s constant writing themes is the inevitability of Barak Obama. He is convinced — or at least attempting to convince – that Obama is the overwhelming people’s choice. He not only thinks Obama is going to win in November, but win big. As he puts it …

… the odds are good that Obama will win the Presidency. And if Democrats execute with precision during the campaign, the odds are good that he will win with a healthy margin.

In his recent Huffington column, ole Creamer cites a statistical model devised by the political prognosticators at http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/. He claims they show Obama easily carrying enough states to get 273 electoral votes, with 270 needed to win. And there are other states likely to go for Obama, according to Creamer.

I went to see what the deal was (see chart) . I found that 538 currently gives Obama an electoral victory of 270.8 – a meaningless one and a half vote victory. And what is the margin of error on this projection?

More interestingly, 538 gives the popular vote to McCain. This is a little like the nomination process, itself, where Obama could slip to second place in the popular vote (depending on your partisan calculas), but receive the nomination at the hands of the delegates.

Even more interesting in the 538 projection, Clinton swamps McCain in the Electoral College and wins the popular vote. It appeas that Hillary is the one who could “win with a healthy margin.”

Coincidentally, syndicated Columnist, Bob Novak, has done his own Electoral College analysis. He shows McCain as the winner today with the bare minimum of 270 votes. Another “who knows” result.

“The odds are good that Obama will win the Presidency.”??? What is Creamer thinking? Smoking? The only thing that can be extrapolated from these guesstimates is that we could be in for another long, long election night – or maybe days.

Of course, Creamer is an expert in the art of never being wrong, so he adds the disclaimer that his prediction could change based on new developments. Using Creamer’s logic, allow me to make my own prediction. I think that Ralph Nader will be elected president with 66 percent of the popular vote. Of course, my prognostication will be adjusted based on future data – like Nader’s failure to get out of single digit polling numbers by the last weekend of the election season.

Creamer confidently predicts that if the election were today, Obama would win. Whoa! There is a prediction as courageous as it is meaningless. Would someone take Creamer aside and explain that the election is not for another five months? Even at that, I take exception to Creamer’s opinion. If the election were today, I think McCain wins. Things seem to change when the voters have to get serious about their decision. That’s why early polls and projections are mostly wrong.
I am standing by my prediction that Obama bombs in November. I say we’re looking at a 51/48 win for McCain, minimally — with a few votes for Nader as the Green Party candidate and Libertarian standard bearer Robert Barr.

Time — and maybe the Supreme Court — will tell.

>REACT: Campaign has reached its nadir… oh… Nader.

>”Stop the presses!!!” Hmmm. I need to be more modern. “Download the story!!!” Ralph Nader has announced his intention to run for President of the United States … again.

Now we truly have history in the making. We can choose from the oldest white guy ever elected President, or the first guy who looks more African American then he is, or the first female who looks more butch than she is, or now the first left winger who looks more sane than he is.

If New York Mayor David Bloomberg gets into the melee, we would have the first Jewish guy AND someone how could promise to pay off a significant portion of the national debt from his personal checking account. And with Nader mucking up things (as a good muckraker should), maybe Bloomberg will take a look. I mean, it is better to have been at least a presidential candidate than end your political career as mayor of the Big Apple. Even Rudy Giuliani knew that much. Look where he is in the fame game compared to John Lindsay, Ed Koch and David Dinkins. Who are these guys? Exactly! (I pictured David Dinkins because I doubt anyone remembers the poor chap).

But … this is Nader’s day. Already the Democrat political handlers and candidates are reaching for the aspirin or the gin bottle. They’re still pretty perturbed over what they consider Nader’s gift of the presidency to George Bush in 2000 — a least when then are not heaping venom on the Supreme Court. Without Nadar, they say Florida and the White House would truly have gone to Al “The Weatherman” Gore.

Nader does not care. He is a bipartisan hater. There is no redeeming value to either the GOP or the Democrat party. Only HE can save this nation from the clutches of corporate America. He is the candidate of the labor-acracy. His only problem is that while he champions the causes of the barons of organized labor, they, too, think he is more than an annoying nut case. If he loathes both political donkeys and elephants equally, one can wonder why he always goes out to kill the donkey. He must be more like the donkey since all my Democrat friends refer to him as a jackass.

If Nader’s constituency were as big as his ego and arrogance, he would be ending his eight-year residency in the White House. Maybe not. I suspect by now he would have scratched out the Twenty-Second Amendment that limits presidential terms.

The only thing that makes Nader at all interesting is the fact that in all probability this will be another close election. We are a nation divided. While most voters will shun Nader, as they did in 2004, a razor thin outcome could … just could … make Nader a two-time spoiler.

I say “spoiler” because it is the term of art, but frankly the Nader campaign of 2000 did not spoil MY election day. Yes, he is a nut. And yes, I think his whole platform sucks. And yes, I do not think there is a snowball’s chance in Hades that he can even come close to winning. If he can get past two percent, however, he could be up for the 2008 Ross Perot Award. So, I say to Ralph Nader. “God speed and good luck.”