Category Archives: polls

>OPINION: America (On Line, at least) gives debate win to McCain

>Looking at the current** (Saturday, 5:30 p.m.) results of the AOL Hot Seat (unscientific) poll, John McCain won the first debate by a 57 to 37 margin, with about 6 percent who are clueless. The state-by-state break down confirms my impression of this year’s presidential race. Barack Obama is the clear choice of blacks and left wing loonies. I draw this conclusion because McCain was declared the winner in every state of the Union (including Obama’s home state of Illlinois) except Washington, D.C. and Vermont.

**Results may change as more voters express their preferences.

Now we all know D.C. has the highest proportion of black population of any place in America. The apparent propensity of blacks to vote skin color and even (partial) ethnicity over any and all issues is racist, by definition. So, when the Obama whiners talk about how he will suffer unfair disadvantage due to non-black racism, remind them that he is gaining an offsetting advantage from black racism.

Less known, but easily provable, Vermont is like that candy bar — chuck full of (left wing) nuts. It is the home base of the only truly socialist senator in Congress, Bernie Sanders (left, of course), and the headquarters of Ben and Jerry, who dole out left wing propaganda with ever scoop of their ice cream.

You may recall from past blogs, it is also famous for the alien village of Brattleboro, which voted to have President Bush arrested for violating the U.S. Constitution if he set so much as one toe across the village boundary. The irony that their action is … ah … unconstitutional is lost on the good people of brattleboro.

I have said it before, and I will say it again … the American part of America would glady let Vermont slip out from under the Union if it was not for thier maple syrup.

So … there you have it. The bedrock of Obama’s support are racists and nuts.

DISCLAIMER: In these days of uptight politics and anal attitudes, I find it necessary to note that the above blog is offered as a tongue in (my) cheek commentary. It is not meant to be reverse reverse racism or mean spiritedness. If you cannot see the good natured jest then you don’t get it — or you are uptight with an anal attitude. Lighten up!

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>READT: Post-convention polling? I told you so!

>John McCain goes over the magical 50 percent mark in a major national pool, and leads Barack Obama by anywhere from 4 to 10 points. The top story on AOL declared Obama now to be the “under dog.”

For those who have been tracking my unwavering prediction — a McCain win (even when few believed that possible) — this is precisely the trajectory I outlined. The only chance Obama has is the success of a massive registration effort and a very, very lopsided turnout.

For sure, there is massive registration going on on the Democrat side at the moment, and the GOP is lagging. However, expect the Republicans to close the registration gap before November (with Sarah Palin being part of the stimulus), and the pachyderm party holds an edge historically in being able to get their folks to the polls.

The hard line progressives are NOW claiming that these polls do not mean much. There basic position is that these are national polls and you reall have to look at state-by-state polling to see what happens in the Electoral College. The irony that they would be hoping for an electoral victory even if not a popular vote victory should not be overlooked. However, most independent polls show McCain with a win at the electoral level too, if, as the say, “the election were held today.”

Despite Lincoln’s admonition, we are a nation divided, so you can expect the lead to go back and forth a bit, and vary from poll to poll. But barring any major screw up by McCain (always a possibility), this election is over except for the official tally on Election Day.

>OBSERVATION: More bad news for Obama

>At the conclusion of the Democrat convention, Gallup took a pole. As expected, after the flawless staging with each key speaker hitting a home run (according to the progressive media crowd), Barack Obama gained in the national polls. Most refer to this as a post-convention “bounce.” I think that is too strong of a word in Obama’s case. Maybe a “bimp” (as the movies’ fumbling Inspector Clouseau would say) is more appropriate.

Whatever you call it, it is more bad new for Obama. He only moved up a couple points — reinforcing my contention that this election is already over. Even more surprising, Obama did not even move temporarily over the 50 percent mark.

I do have a disclaimer. The poll was after the convention, but before the grandiose acceptance speech, which got universal acclaim — at least in terms of style and delivery. I suspect Obama may enjoy a few days in the majority end zone of popular opinion after that speech — depending on how much wind John McCain zapped out of Obama’s sails with the GOP vice presidential announcement. McCain cleverly cut in front of Obama in the media line for the widely read and viewed weekend news.

>OP ED: Obama: Looking good while losing.

>The Democrats and the Barack Obama team should know better, but I am thrilled that they do not. They appear to operating under the assumption that they on the verge of a tsunami-level election victory.

The liberal pundits and radio gabbers are orgasmic in their political fantasy of the post-GOP world. Everyday, they wax on and on about the misfortunes of John McCain and his doomed quest. They mock his age. They make fun of his physical handicaps. They brutally lambaste his wife. (Tsk! Tsk! Where is their political correctness now?) They speak with certainty that Obama WILL be the next occupant of the oval office.

They cite polls that show Obama far ahead in all kinds of esoteric comparisons. Likeability. Good for education. More trusted with the economy. They are bewildered, however, by head-to-head polls that keep McCain within the margin of error – and certain that these samplings of public opinion are merely lagging indicators of a future victory.

No doubt Obama is riding a crest of positive exposure. He is the charismatic barnstormer – appropriately dubbed the “rock star” candidate. The ever-biased media has lost their last measure of professional dignity in their zeal to put Obama in the White House. The press has become so imbalanced in their reporting, in both coverage and slant, that even editorialists, columnists and commentators of all hues are chastising their newsroom colleagues.

How can Obama possibly lose, the progressives rhetorically ask?

Easy. This ain’t November.

First and foremost, Obama would have to overcome the enormously significant reality of a very racially divided electorate. (Shhh! We’re not supposed to talk about this). His parochial message that is likely to garner him more than 80 percent of the black vote is naturally going to create a racial backlash in the white community. We can argue about the extend of its impact, but not its existence.

While liberals charge “racism,” it is not racism to vote against a candidate who appears to represent the narrow interest of a group of which one is not a member. But, forget the academics. The reality is that Obama is not producing the kind of showing in the non-African-American communities he needs to win the election. This does not take into account the “Bradley Effect,” which basically suggests that a lot fewer whites will vote black than the polls indicate. Why? First, becasue early polls are almost never right. Second, because a significant number of those interviewed do not like to say they are voting agains the black guy — they lie. This is especially true if the interviewer is black, or sounds black.

Liberals like to think that all designated minorities are part of a unified progressive bloc. In reality, Obama has a problem with Hispanics. Even if he gets a better share, their numbers in the voting booth are not that great. Obama has no universal appeal to Asians, who will again show a high degree of independency in their voting patterns. He will not do as well as a Democrat should with Jews — all his talk about protecting Israel notwithstanding.

These and other reasons explain why all the hoopla is not letting Obama break away from McCain. I would think Obama needs a good 10 to 15 point lead today to even be in the running in November. If he is in a dead heat now, how can he win when his fortunes begin to descend — as they surely will. Okay! Yeah, he will get a short term boost after the convention, but then it is all down hill.

For the most part, the events and impressions of today will not mean much to the all important undecided voters. It is the post-convention period that is critical in shaping opinions that will finally result in a voting decision. In other words, Obama is having a hot run of great publicity when it doesn’t mean much. Conversely, McCain is being beaten down before it matters. He will have ample time to shore up his exposed weak points.

McCain has a future advantage. To some measure, the press will recognize enough guilt to start balancing off their coverage. McCain will get more and better reporting. Also, the public tends to get tired of unending “over the fold” coverage of one candidate. They will be more sympathetic and response to the future McCain messages. Too much exposure leads to a backlash. It would be hard to argue that Obama is not overexposed at this point.

Outside of a few terse retorts, Obama have not been subjected to the issue debate. The fact is, Obama is much more liberal than the American public. He is counting on novelty, charisma and lkeability to trump the issues disparity. The Republicans are withholding their fusalage of counter advertising for a more critical time. Once the battle is engaged, Obama is going to see his numbers slipping.

The junior senator from Illinois, and his supporters seem to want to win the election every day. Listening to the liberal (hot) Air America, it is astonishing how they analyze every daily event and opinion poll as if they are doing Election Day coverage — and always projecting Obama as the winner. The GOP national establishment, for all its faults, is better at strategy – recognizing that there is only one day when winning matters.

As I often disclaim. The course events can change in the face of dramatic disclosures or blunders. The Republicans are more susceptible to making such blunders, and theirs are more likely to be amplified by the media. But for now, this race remains McCain’s to lose.

Footnote: Oh! The picture of Obama. Yeah! It has been a while since I used one of him smoking. Just using it in the spirit of full disclosure. There has not been a better kept presidential secret since the public had no idea Franklin Roosevelt was wheelchair-bound. And yes, the McCain photo is among his best. Since he has been getting beat up so badly in the press these days, I thought I would put the thumb on his side of the scale for a change.

>REACT: Creamer dreamer

>If I ever want someone to write a convincing article about the existence of the Tooth Fairy, I would assign the job to liberal emoter Robert Creamer, a fellow Illinoisan. I came to this conclusion after reading his latest espousings on the inevitability of the election of Barack Obama to the presidency. I find the argument advancing the existence of the Tooth Fairy to be more compelling than Creamer’s brief on behalf of Obama’s election.

If you are not familiar with Creamer (pictured), he is a regular contributor to the Huff ‘n Puff Post … I mean the Huffington Post. He is the husband of Illinois Congresswoman Jan Schakowski (one of the more charming liberals), and according to his own tag line, Creamer is “a long time political organizer and strategist and author of the recent book, Stand Up Straight. How Progressives Can Win.” (Is “Stand Up Straight” demeaning to the gay community? Is this code language? You just cannot be too careful these days.)

Anyway … Creamer forgot to mention that he was the founder and head of Illinois Political Action, a radical left-wing advocacy group. I say “was” because he left that group when the local U.S. Attorney found a cell for him in one of those federal penal institutions. He spent half a year as a guest of the taxpayers for something to do with bank fraud, check kiting and not turning over payroll withholding money to the government — all the while he took home a six-figure salary and enjoyed a generous expense account. He copped a plea to avoid more serious charges – as if those are not serious enough. Of course, as with most scandalized and felonious left-wingers, he remains in the highest esteem of the liberal establishment – ergo his platform on the Huffington Pest…. ooops … I mean Post.

Hailing from Illinois, Creamer is another of Obama’s good friends of dubious repute – guys who span the spectrum from controversial to criminal. Tony Rezko? Bill Ayers? Jeremiah Wright? This is getting more interesting all the time. I wonder if Creamer’s enthusiasm for Obama is spelled p-a-r-d-o-n.

Weeeeell … as I said … one of Bob’s constant writing themes is the inevitability of Barak Obama. He is convinced — or at least attempting to convince – that Obama is the overwhelming people’s choice. He not only thinks Obama is going to win in November, but win big. As he puts it …

… the odds are good that Obama will win the Presidency. And if Democrats execute with precision during the campaign, the odds are good that he will win with a healthy margin.

In his recent Huffington column, ole Creamer cites a statistical model devised by the political prognosticators at http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/. He claims they show Obama easily carrying enough states to get 273 electoral votes, with 270 needed to win. And there are other states likely to go for Obama, according to Creamer.

I went to see what the deal was (see chart) . I found that 538 currently gives Obama an electoral victory of 270.8 – a meaningless one and a half vote victory. And what is the margin of error on this projection?

More interestingly, 538 gives the popular vote to McCain. This is a little like the nomination process, itself, where Obama could slip to second place in the popular vote (depending on your partisan calculas), but receive the nomination at the hands of the delegates.

Even more interesting in the 538 projection, Clinton swamps McCain in the Electoral College and wins the popular vote. It appeas that Hillary is the one who could “win with a healthy margin.”

Coincidentally, syndicated Columnist, Bob Novak, has done his own Electoral College analysis. He shows McCain as the winner today with the bare minimum of 270 votes. Another “who knows” result.

“The odds are good that Obama will win the Presidency.”??? What is Creamer thinking? Smoking? The only thing that can be extrapolated from these guesstimates is that we could be in for another long, long election night – or maybe days.

Of course, Creamer is an expert in the art of never being wrong, so he adds the disclaimer that his prediction could change based on new developments. Using Creamer’s logic, allow me to make my own prediction. I think that Ralph Nader will be elected president with 66 percent of the popular vote. Of course, my prognostication will be adjusted based on future data – like Nader’s failure to get out of single digit polling numbers by the last weekend of the election season.

Creamer confidently predicts that if the election were today, Obama would win. Whoa! There is a prediction as courageous as it is meaningless. Would someone take Creamer aside and explain that the election is not for another five months? Even at that, I take exception to Creamer’s opinion. If the election were today, I think McCain wins. Things seem to change when the voters have to get serious about their decision. That’s why early polls and projections are mostly wrong.
I am standing by my prediction that Obama bombs in November. I say we’re looking at a 51/48 win for McCain, minimally — with a few votes for Nader as the Green Party candidate and Libertarian standard bearer Robert Barr.

Time — and maybe the Supreme Court — will tell.